A pesar del aumento de las tasas de interés, los precios de las viviendas en EE.UU. continúan subiendo. Una de las razones principales es la política de alivio hipotecario del gobierno federal, que permite a los prestatarios obtener préstamos más grandes de lo que pueden pagar mientras reciben rescates para evitar ejecuciones hipotecarias. Aunque estas políticas buscan fomentar la propiedad de viviendas, han contribuido a un mercado inmobiliario insostenible, similar a la crisis hipotecaria de 2008.

Cómo las Políticas Gubernamentales Crearon una Nueva Burbuja Inmobiliaria

El origen de la crisis actual se remonta a la administración de Obama, que flexibilizó los estándares de concesión de préstamos para hacer más accesible la compra de viviendas. Esto permitió que prestatarios con pagos de deuda superiores al 43% de sus ingresos calificaran para préstamos respaldados por el gobierno. Aunque el objetivo era positivo, el resultado fue un aumento significativo en el riesgo de impago.

A medida que los precios de las viviendas subieron, la Administración Federal de Vivienda (FHA) siguió asegurando préstamos a prestatarios con problemas financieros. Muchos de ellos solo aportaron el 3.5% del valor de la vivienda como pago inicial, lo que minimizó el riesgo para los prestamistas, ya que los préstamos estaban garantizados por el gobierno.

Las estadísticas clave revelan la magnitud del problema:

– En 2007, el 35% de los nuevos prestatarios de la FHA tenía una relación deuda-ingreso superior al 43%.
– Para 2020, esta cifra aumentó al 54%.
– En 2023, aproximadamente el 64% de los prestatarios de la FHA superó el umbral del 43%.
– El 79% de los prestatarios primerizos de la FHA tenía menos de un mes de reservas financieras.

Estos préstamos de alto riesgo han hecho que la cartera de la FHA sea más vulnerable que antes de la crisis de 2008. A medida que la inflación y los costos de vivienda aumentaron, los prestatarios han quedado en una situación financiera cada vez más precaria.

Rescates Gubernamentales y el Riesgo Moral

Bajo la administración de Biden, los programas de alivio hipotecario han evitado ejecuciones hipotecarias, pero con consecuencias negativas. Actualmente, el 7.05% de los préstamos FHA emitidos en 2023 están en mora grave (90+ días de atraso), una tasa superior al pico de la crisis subprime en 2008.

Los programas incluyen:

– Pagos Incentivados a Prestamistas: Se paga a los prestamistas para que cubran los pagos de los prestatarios, sumando la deuda sin intereses.
– Reducción de Pagos: Se reduce el pago mensual en un 25% durante tres años, aumentando la deuda total del préstamo.
– Ciclo de Endeudamiento: Si un prestatario sigue sin pagar, puede volver a ingresar al programa de alivio, generando más deuda sin pagar intereses.

Por ejemplo, si un prestatario no paga cinco meses de hipoteca de $4,000, el prestamista cubre los $20,000 y reduce su pago mensual en $1,000 por tres años, añadiendo $36,000 a la deuda. Esto deja al prestatario con $56,000 adicionales en deuda, sin intereses, pero sin solución a su problema financiero.

Las políticas de alivio hipotecario de Biden han inflado una burbuja inmobiliaria peligrosa. Proteger a prestatarios irresponsables ha distorsionado el mercado y aumentado la carga fiscal para los ciudadanos. Si estas medidas terminan, podrían aumentar las ejecuciones hipotecarias y caer los precios, pero a largo plazo, permitirían una recuperación real del mercado y mejorar la accesibilidad para nuevos compradores.

The hidden cost of Biden’s mortgage relief: a housing bubble in the making

Despite rising interest rates, housing prices in the U.S. continue to climb. One of the main reasons is the federal government’s mortgage relief programs, which allow borrowers to take out larger loans than they can afford while also providing bailouts to prevent foreclosures. These policies, designed to support homeownership, have inadvertently contributed to an unsustainable housing market, reminiscent of the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008.

How Government Policies Created a New Housing Bubble

The roots of the current housing issue date back to the Obama administration, which loosened underwriting standards to make homeownership more accessible. This policy allowed borrowers with debt payments exceeding 43% of their income to qualify for government-backed loans. While this initiative aimed to boost homeownership, it significantly increased the risk of default.

Over the years, as home prices surged, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) continued insuring loans to financially strained borrowers. Many of these borrowers put down as little as 3.5% of the home’s value, exposing lenders to minimal risk since the government-backed mortgages would cover losses in the event of default.

Key statistics highlight the growing problem:

– In 2007, 35% of new FHA borrowers had debt-to-income (DTI) ratios above 43%.
– By 2020, that figure had risen to 54%.
– In 2023, approximately 64% of FHA borrowers exceeded the 43% DTI threshold.
– A staggering 79% of first-time FHA borrowers had less than one month’s financial reserves.

These risky lending practices have made the FHA loan portfolio more vulnerable than before the 2008 housing crisis. As inflation and housing costs surged, borrowers found themselves increasingly stretched thin, leading to a rise in missed mortgage payments.

Government-Backed Bailouts and the Moral Hazard

Under the Biden administration, mortgage relief efforts have shielded borrowers from foreclosure, but at a significant cost. Many FHA loans issued in recent years have become delinquent, with about 7.05% of FHA mortgages issued in 2023 becoming seriously delinquent (90+ days past due) within 12 months—a rate even higher than during the peak of the 2008 subprime crisis.

To mask these growing troubles, the government has implemented relief programs that effectively encourage risky borrowing and delay the inevitable reckoning in the housing market. These include:

– Servicer Bailouts: Mortgage servicers receive incentive payments for making missed mortgage payments on behalf of borrowers. The  missed payments are then added to the mortgage principal without interest.

– Payment Reductions: Delinquent borrowers receive a 25% reduction in their monthly mortgage payments for three years, with the deferred amount also being added to the loan balance.

– Repeated Debt Cycles: Borrowers who continue missing payments can simply re-enter relief programs, increasing their mortgage debt while mortgage servicers profit from additional government payouts.

For example, if a borrower misses five mortgage payments of $4,000 each, the servicer covers the $20,000 in missed payments, then reduces the borrower’s monthly payment by $1,000 for three years—adding another $36,000 to the mortgage balance. This results in $56,000 of added debt with no additional interest, but the borrower remains in financial distress.

Consequences: Rising Prices and a Stagnant Market
The long-term effects of these policies are problematic for both home buyers and the broader economy:

– Housing Prices Continue to Rise: Borrowers who would typically face foreclosure are kept in their homes artificially, reducing housing supply and keeping prices high.

– Underwater Borrowers Are Trapped: Many FHA borrowers owe more than their homes are worth due to ballooning mortgage balances, making it nearly impossible for them to sell or move.

– Taxpayers Shoulder the Burden: The FHA’s insurance fund, which is supposed to cover mortgage losses, is being drained to bail out delinquent borrowers and servicers. If the fund runs out, taxpayers will ultimately bear the cost.

What Happens If These Policies End?
If a future administration, such as one led by Donald Trump, decides to end these mortgage relief programs, the housing market could face a sudden and severe correction:

– Foreclosures Would Spike: Many borrowers who have relied on repeated bailout programs would default.

– Home Prices Could Plummet: Increased foreclosures would flood the market with homes, particularly in lower-income areas where FHA loans are more common.

– More Borrowers Would Go Underwater: As home prices drop, many homeowners who took out large mortgages with small down payments would owe more than their homes are worth.

– Affordability Would Improve: While painful in the short term, a housing correction could make homes more accessible to first-time buyers who have been priced out of the market.

Conclusion
The Biden administration’s mortgage relief policies have created a dangerous housing bubble, propping up home prices while delaying an inevitable reckoning. By shielding delinquent borrowers from foreclosure and incentivizing lenders to make risky loans, these policies place an increasing burden on taxpayers and distort the housing market. While ending these programs could cause short-term economic pain, allowing the market to correct itself is the only way to restore long-term stability and affordability in the housing sector.